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Tuesday, April 21, 2009

History of Goldman’s Conviction Buy List

Last week Simon properties got a big pop after being added to Goldman Sachs’ conviction buy list. I decided to check on how stocks perform after being added to this elite list. Here are a few of their past picks:

6/23/2008 - Added X (United States Steel Corp.) @ $191
Later went on to reach a low of $17
Now trading at $28.5

6/26/2008 - Added MON (Monsanto) @ $134.90
Later went on to reach a low of $68
Now trading at $79

6/9/2008 - Added MOS (Mosaic Co.) @ $141
Later went on to reach an all time low of $29
Now trading at $44

5/23/2008 - Added AAPL (Apple, Inc.) @ $181
Later went on to reach an all time low of $80
Now trading at $121

3/25/2008 - Added ERTS (Electronic Arts, Inc.) @ $49
Later went on to reach an all time low of $15
Now trading at $18.70

3/4/2008 - Added RCL (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.) @ $35
Later went on to reach an all time low of $5.65
Now trading at $10.80

5/19/2008 - Added AMZN (Amazon.com Inc.) @ $82
Later went on to reach an all time low of $35
Now trading at $77

7/11/2008 - Added QCOM (QUALCOMM Inc.) @ $48
Later went on to reach an all time low of $28
Now trading at $39

6/11/2008 - Added STT (State Street Corp.) @ $68
Later went on to reach an all time low of $17
Now trading at $33

7/8/2008 - Added TEVA (Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.) @ $45
Later went on to reach an all time low of $36
Now trading at $44

2/11/2008 - Added CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory, Inc.) @ $21
Later went on to reach an all time low of $5
Now trading at $14

Could it be that Goldman adds stocks to their conviction buy list when their trading desk needs to unload a bunch of shares on someone? It’s possible, but I have no proof of this. It’s pure speculation.

Oh yeah, and what about those $200 oil calls by Goldman analysts? That couldn’t have had anything to do with their huge conflict of interest, could it?

I couldn’t find a definitive page that lists all of their conviction buy ratings on Goldman’s site, but this one seems to be fairly accurate.

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