Exposing Ideas to the Envelope of Serendipity

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Wednesday, May 20, 2009


I'm now questioning how much downside we have given that today we saw this market controlled by sellers.

Volume downside TICK was heavier than usual, but not extreme when looking back a couple of weeks.

I will remain bullish with my 950 ES target.

I will be right until I'm wrong.

There is nothing wrong with pulling back before we lurch higher.

The positive $TICK this morning was very notable. This just does not happen on its own. Institutional buyers are the ones that can keep it up this length of time. But as we saw sellers halted the advance.

With "intra day timeframe" lenses on, I would say that it would be "normal" for the market to break down as much as it broke out and the 900 area (maybe a smidgen lower to 895) is the bottom of today's reaction to 923. 5

Over night action in the /ES will be important to me. But let's say the 895-900 area continues to hold. Then I could see us surge back up above 905 ( my bottom target today).

If this proves not to be a bear trap and sellers appear in control, then going back down to 860 will be in the cards and I will become bearish short term, but I still hold ES950 as an intermediate target.
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