Exposing Ideas to the Envelope of Serendipity

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Friday, May 22, 2009

$USD's Tell...

Nat. Gas VS. OIL a tale of two tapes

"$UNG Nat gas is a TELL on just how pathetic our eonomy is $OIL is a tell own how pathetic the $ is  (From an earlier Tweet).  

Make no mistake about what these two DIFFERANT commodities are telling us.  Oil is not going up because things are getting better in the economy.  Quite the contrary, Oil is going up because commodities are priced in US Dollars.  Oil is a "tell" on just how bad the dollar is.

If you want to see a better view of our economy, consider looking at Natural gas.  While Oil is up over 30% YTD, Nat Gas is down over 30%.

Unlike oil, which is transported and shipped world wide, Nat Gas tends to be produced and consumed locally.  So in the US, we produce 100% of our Nat Gas domestically, and for our own consumption.

This by itself should not totally dispell the "Green Shoots" rally that we are seeing, but for me it is one of the key 'tells' that I use to tell me that the economy is creeping along the bottom at best.

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