Exposing Ideas to the Envelope of Serendipity

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Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Critical Juncture

Market action has continued to be overwhelmingly bearish, and numerous prior expectations of both bulls and bears for at least an oversold rally to ensue near-term have thus far been summarily squashed by relentless selling. Several of the major indexes are still trading in a descending wedge pattern as they probe very critical support levels, and if the bulls are going to stage a rally, it may soon be "do or die." Falling wedges are typically bullish reversal patterns, although this one is pushing the limits to the downside at this point. A convincing move and close above the descending trendline off the 2010 highs is needed to bolster the bull case and improve the near to intermediate-term outlook. On the other hand, a convincing move and close below the illustrated horizontal support line could make the recovery much more protracted.

Trade well.

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