Exposing Ideas to the Envelope of Serendipity

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Thursday, April 28, 2011


Wednesday's FOMC day triggered a broad-based market breakout, with only the $RUT not yet trading at new multi-year highs by the session's close. The move in the Nasdaq Composite is arguably the most significant advance to keep an eye on, however. It is a decisive move above the 2007 high that will confirm a bullish double bottom base on the $COMPX. A double bottom is a major reversal pattern, a term which by itself should put the potential significance of this event into context. Confirmation of the double bottom base would signify that the Nasdaq is just now confirming a reversal of the prior trend, the tech-wreck bear market from 2000 - 2002. The projected pattern resolution is not too far from the tech bubble high. As of Wednesday's close, the tech-heavy index did indeed close above the 2007 high, but not yet by a decisive margin. It will be important to see follow-through action, with the index working to establish the 2007 as new support. Take a look at the breakout above the 2011 high on the daily chart followed by a look at the long-term weekly chart with a close just barely above the critical 2007 watermark.

The $SPX also registered a solid advance on Wednesday, continuing its foray into new multi-year highs.

The precious metals also continued their incredible bull run on Wednesday, with silver closing right at its prior high and gold breaking out to new highs.

Trade well.

-- Brinkley
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